Disclaimer: Unless otherwise stated, any opinions expressed below are solely the author’s. The data is taken from the Economic Development Board and the Department of Statistics of Singapore.
After the chaos of 2025, following the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the wave of trade tariffs that the US introduced to the world, 2026 offered the promise of greater stability. Singapore weathered the storm well, growing to 5% of GDP, despite fears of a global recession, raising expectations for the new year.
Unfortunately, another geopolitical event shook the world on Feb 28, when the US and Israel decided to confront the Iranian regime for the last time, leading to a major disruption in oil and gas trade from the Persian Gulf and sending energy prices around the world.
Since all economies depend on fuel and electricity, almost every area of our work is affected. It should come as no surprise that the city-state’s business climate has declined in the coming months as a result.
Services that are laid off by fear, productivity is still supported by AI
The outlook for Singapore-based businesses over the next six months is grim. Only four industries expect an increase in employment, while others appear to be in the red (statistics show Total weighted percentage of positive/negative responses collected by the EDB and the Singapore Department of Statistics in their quarterly survey).
Local production, fortunately, is still on life support, thanks to continuous technological advances in Artificial Intelligence, which keeps the demand for semiconductor products and related sectors high.
Interestingly, the IT rally has been more than enough to offset the woes of other manufacturing sectors, boosting the overall ratio:
You can see it reflected in employment forecasts as well, as manufacturing is expected to employ more workers than ever before. The caveat, of course, is that demand is highly disproportionate and driven by a bubble that could suddenly burst, leaving thousands of people out of work overnight.
Employment systems are collapsing
While this dire prediction about the AI revolution is still a ‘maybe,’ the job prospects in services—where the majority of Singaporeans are employed—are already bleak.
For the sake of comparison, let’s start with what the figures showed in the first half of the year:
All but two industries are expected to increase employment, having just had a strong 2025, against odds and fears.
Now, however, let’s take a look at what employers in Singapore are saying today:
As you can see, the situation has completely changed. Only those in the Leisure and Human Services expect to bring more people on board (although it’s hard to say how many of these jobs are targeted at Singaporeans).
Even more money Finance The industry is being bailed out at this time, and may see job cuts instead of hiring this quarter.
To understand how big the change is, just look at the emotional breakdown between these two parts:
Apart from Real estatepartially offset by the global turmoil (cooling measures for foreign buyers have been in place for a long time, while the domestic market remains stable and predictable), every other industry has seen a decline in expected hiring activity.
Retail trade seems to be taking a big hit, down 35 percent, from a net positive of 12 to 23.
That said, almost everyone is as optimistic as they were at the start of 2026. And unless the war with Iran comes to an end soon, companies may be reluctant to increase employment, given high operating costs and uncertainty about the outcome of the conflict.
Our only consolation is that we have experienced the same chaos at the same time last year. All’s well that ends well.
- Read other articles we have written about the Singapore work environment here.
Featured Image Credit: Shadow_of_light/depositphotos
