Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, announced on Friday that the crypto market has seen its cycle bottom, with Bitcoin’s recent dip to around $59,000 marking the latest low – a 53% drop from its October high of $126,000.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in Friday’s letter, adding, “I think we’ve now seen the bottom of crypto assets this cycle.”
Bitcoin gained nearly $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s letter, representing a roughly 5% gain over the past week. The bank maintains a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year – estimates first released in February.
SpaceX IPO pulls in crypto – then frees it up
One of the two main motivations Kendrick cited is the Nasdaq history of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened well above their IPO price, gaining nearly 20% on the first day. Kendrick asserted that much of the Bitcoin ETF’s recent outflows — including more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May, among the sharpest “since the beginning” — were driven by investors closing crypto positions to protect SpaceX shares. With the IPO now live, that particular selling pressure may increase, he said.
The overlap between crypto demand and SpaceX was already playing out in real time. In Hyperliquid, the perpetual contracts of SpaceX (SPCX) accumulated more than 240 million dollars in open interest and 220 million dollars in volume 24 hours before the debut – it is ranked as the eighth largest asset on the platform.
Iran is the wildcard
The second catalyst involves geopolitics. A potential peace deal between the US and Iran, set ahead of next week’s G7 summit, could ease pressure on global oil supplies that have been tight since the Middle East conflict began.
Lower oil prices will later cool higher US Treasury yields – which have weighed on risky assets like crypto by making risk-free government debt more attractive.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 1.5% on Friday to around $85–$86 per barrel. However, the narrative of the peace agreement remained fragile.
President Trump said on Thursday that there may be progress this weekend, but he will later write on Truth Social that the deal made public is not what was agreed upon, warning Iranian officials to “get their act together” – adding uncertainty to the larger outlook.
Three bitcoin price signals to watch
Kendrick revealed three signs of verification that would confirm his call. First, look for Strategy to announce more Bitcoin purchases on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history served as a signal of reliable demand for institutional appetite.
Second, he expects US spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday.
Third, he wants to see a continued decline in global oil prices as the situation with Iran’s officials improves.
If all three happen, Kendrick’s crypto spring thesis gains its clearest confirmation yet — suggesting that institutional and macro forces are finally aligning to push Bitcoin back to the bank’s year-end target of $100,000.
