Summary
- Research firm Bernstein says Bitcoin has likely experienced a cyclical downturn and is reiterating its year-end price of $150,000, describing the current decline as the “weakest bear case” in the commodity’s history.
- BTC is trading around $70,668, about 40% below its all-time high, but Bernstein says the correction reflects a temporary confidence issue rather than any structural collapse.
- The strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) – which owns about 3.6% of the total Bitcoin capital, worth about $53.5 billion – has continued to buy at a recent low, raising $7.3 billion in 2026 alone to increase its holdings.
The research and marketing firm Bernstein, which manages about 867 billion dollars, announced on March 24 that the low price of Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to enter and maintain its 2026 year-end price of $150,000 – which means a profit of more than 100% from current levels – as the company’s analysts further divide the Bitcoin market. he was patient.
Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the current pullback as “Bitcoin’s weakest bear in its history,” pointing to what the company sees as a short-term crisis in investor confidence rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamentals. With BTC trading at around $70,668 at the time of writing – down almost 40% from its peak – Bernstein’s conviction remains intact.
A Different Kind of Pull
The framework is a deliberate departure from the way bear markets have been characterized. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw the most violent falls: the 2013 peak near $1,150 was followed by an 84% drawdown, the 2017 high of $20,000 preceded a 77% drop, and the 2021 peak near $69,000 gave way to a potential 70% correction. By comparison, the current 40% decline looks restrained — and Bernstein says, structurally, it’s too risky.
The key chapters, according to the firm, are the maturity of institutional flows and a more favorable policy environment. Adoption of the Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to grow, corporate treasury participation is accelerating, and the US political landscape has shifted to a direction widely viewed as supportive of digital assets. None of the systemic failures that defined 2022 — collapsed exchanges, bankrupt lenders, contagion — are present in the current cycle.
Strategy and On-Chain Signals
The continued accumulation of strategies in compressed values is cited as a key supporting data point. The company now owns about 3.6% of the total circulating Bitcoin, which is estimated at $53.5 billion, and has raised $7.3 billion by 2026 specifically to expand its Bitcoin treasury. Bernstein considers the Strategy a high-beta vehicle with a strong balance sheet, noting that only an extreme case — BTC falling to $8,000 and staying there for five years — would require any balance sheet restructuring.
On-chain data adds more context. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV measurement band, a level between $56,000 and $60,000 that has historically served as a launching point for major rallies: +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126%, and FRX60% in 2020. 2022. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan echoes this view, arguing that declining participation and fading selling interest are indicators of a “textbook bear market” – but historically, accumulation phases rather than exit points. “A bear market is not the time to stop. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle,” he wrote in X.
Where Analysts Divide
Not everyone shares Bernstein’s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck told CNBC in early March that while there is a possibility of a bottom formation, 2026 represents Bitcoin’s fourth year bear cycle, consistent with historical patterns of halvings. Some traders argue that a failure to recover and hold above $70,000 could open the door to a deep leg downwards, which could restore the $60,000 level that has emerged as the most-looked-for structural support.
Bernstein’s $150,000 goal, first established when Bitcoin was trading at record highs, is in line with a broader set of institutional price predictions for 2026 that include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Longer term, Bernstein maintains a goal of $1 million by 2033.
