Bitcoin price forecast favors a retest of the $60,000 level after losing the $65,000 support amid strong volatility and weak sentiment.
Summary
- BTC is down 27% in 30 days and has posted five straight monthly declines.
- The $65K support is broken, focusing on $60K.
- CME futures positions show major traders reducing short exposures.
Bitcoin was trading at $64,846 at press time, down 4.6% in the last 24 hours. The stock is down 5% in the past week and down 27% in the last 30 days.
Bitcoin (BTC) has now declined for five straight months since setting its all-time high in October last year, according to CoinGlass data. If the losses continue until the end of the month, this would be the second longest monthly losing streak in Bitcoin history.
Market sentiment is down significantly. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped four points out of 5, placing it deeply in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
A lot of pressure keeps $60,000 focused
Caroline Mauron, founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the crypto market remains fragile, with traders closely watching the $60,000 support level. He cited rising tensions involving Iran and uncertainty over new US tariffs as key pressure points.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump raised the proposed global tax rate from 10% to 15% via Social Truth. The move came after the US Supreme Court invalidated the previous emergency tax under the IEEPA.
Then, seeking balance of payments problems, Trump reimposed tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The goal is to change broad untapped markets.
Traditional safe havens like gold and silver have responded better than risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is still trading as a high beta risk asset rather than a protective hedge in the current climate.
Meanwhile, Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said that Bitcoin will need to return to $70,000 to restore bullish momentum. Analysts identified $65,000 as the primary level for intellectual and technical support.
That standard has been breached. A sustained move below you increases the chances of a $60,000 retest.
On-chain data from Glassnode adds to the bearish sentiment. The seven-day EMA of Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss sits near $480 million, after falling to $1.24 billion in Feb. 6.
Although losses have come down from record highs, the market is still on the upswing. Glassnode noted that the nomination of investors is still ongoing as Bitcoin works through an extensive put-down process.
Plans for the future of the possible formation of the foundation
There are early signs that the institution’s position may be changing. A recent report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that major traders in CME Bitcoin futures have reduced their short exposure significantly.
The net position has gone from +1,000 contracts last month to 1,600 contracts recently, suggesting that some center players may have transitioned from net to long-term. Last April saw a similar change in setting, which was followed by a 70% increase in Bitcoin prices.
Analysts caution that putting the data alone is not conclusive, however. The downside risk could reach $40,000 if key support fails.
