The XRP price outlook depends on the market reset between falling open interest and rising realized losses.
Summary
- XRP has seen a major decline in recent sessions, retreating more than 60% from its 2025 peak.
- Open interest decreased across Binance, Bybit and Kraken, reflecting a broader scale reduction.
- A large spike in losses and strengthening of the price of the area of volatility near the important technical point of volatility.
XRP (XRP) was trading at $1.39 at press time, down 5.4% over the past 24 hours, as the broader crypto market extended its February retreat.
The token fell 27% last week and is now down 38% year-to-date, marking a 62% retracement from its July 2025 high of $3.65.
Price action throughout the month has been volatile. XRP saw a brief burst, including a nearly 6% rally related to renewed institutional interest and ETF-related developments. Those gains were short-lived.
Selling pressure quickly returned, supporting the downtrend that has been present from the $2.60–$2.80 region.
Lower highs and lower lows defined the structure, and recent candles show the market trying to stabilize after a sharp consolidation line towards the $1.30 area.
Open interest decreases as energy decreases
A February 26 report from CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain pointed to a further contraction in the suspension of XRP derivatives. The 90-day open interest change metric shows that traders have reduced exposure in all major areas.
Platforms like Binance, Bybit, and Kraken have all recorded declines in open contracts over the past three months.
If open interest falls on several trades at once, it usually means that profits are being taken off the table. Positions are closed, risk is cut, and speculative money leaves the market.
That type of contraction does not automatically point to the other lower leg. In most cycles, the price first needs to clear excess strength before it can form a stable base.
On-chain data adds context. According to Santiment, XRP just entered its biggest loss since 2022. Last time the weekly losses reached $1.93 billion, the asset grew more than 100% in the following months.
Fear often prompts investors to sell below their entry price, resulting in huge losses. Selling pressure may decrease as fewer weak hands remain after the departure of many owners.
There is no guarantee that the market will reverse immediately, but historically, these points occur near major market curves.
Technical analysis of XRP price
On the daily chart, XRP remains in a downtrend, with lower highs being built continuously from late 2025. However, recently, the price behavior has changed. Instead of sharp red candles, the market is now consolidating within a tight range.
The Bollinger bands, which developed during the selloff, have begun to contract. The price is moving close to the 20-day moving average of $1.41, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers.
Momentum is starting to show signs of stress. The relative strength index has come back from oversold, but is still below 50, which means the bulls are not in full swing yet. A pressure of more than 50 can change the pressure in favor of consumers.
Dynamic compression appears to be increasing, and expansion is likely to follow. The $1.50–$1.55 area stands as the main resistance area. A clean break and daily close above it would make the latest low and open room $1.65 and possibly $1.80.
On the downside, $1.33 remains an immediate support, with $1.28–$1.30 serving as a structure from the recent currency sweep.
