Will Bitcoin price hold the $65K support as oil surges fuel inflation fears?

Bitcoin price fell 1.4% from an intraday high of $66,300 to $65,368 as rising oil prices, renewed US-Iran tensions, and legal uncertainty forced traders into a defensive posture.

The decline erased part of Bitcoin’s recent recovery and restored the $65,000 support level. Selling accelerated after BTC failed to hold above $66,000, while the Fear and Greed Index remained in neutral territory as traders weighed the institutional entry against new macroeconomic risks.

Political uncertainty added to the pressure after Senate Democrats vetoed parts of the latest proposal for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Polymarket traders cut the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to around 37% earlier this week as ethics rules and investor protections remain unresolved.

At the same time, BitMEX announced that it will close its derivatives exchange on September 23 following a strategic review by parent company HDR Global Trading. The platform stopped accepting new registrations and asked customers to close positions and withdraw their assets before the end of the transaction.

The center flow provided some support during the pullback. The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded recorded $69 million in revenue on July 22, their seventh consecutive positive session, according to SoSoValue data. The seven-day run brought combined earnings to nearly $1 billion, though July’s additions remained below the $6.9 billion withdrawn in May and June.

Oil and country risks are testing demand at $65,000

West Texas Intermediate crude rose nearly 4% to around $90 a barrel on July 23, extending its advance for a fifth session. Brent rose to around $99 as attacks on Saudi oil tankers and threats to the region’s energy infrastructure raised fears of supply disruptions.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that the tanker caught fire after it crashed southwest of Al Shuqaiq. Yemen’s Houthi rebels later claimed to have attacked two Saudi tankers, saying the ships violated their maritime blockade.

President Donald Trump also warned that Washington will strike an Iranian bridge or power plant every time Tehran attacks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities responded by threatening US-linked infrastructure and energy assets across the region if Washington carried out such an attack.

Higher energy costs could keep US inflation high and limit the Federal Reserve’s room to lower interest rates. Treasury yields could rise if traders expect tighter policy for a longer period of time, a development that could hurt demand for Bitcoin and other non-fixed-yield assets.

Technology stocks provided another risk factor as investors assessed Alphabet’s increased spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Weakness in all high-growth rates tends to spill over to Bitcoin because both markets attract investors who are sensitive to interest rates and changes in liquidity.

Bitcoin maintains its rising channel while momentum weakens

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows that the price remains within the ascending channel that started near $57,800 in early July. The lower trendline is now passing through the $65,000–$65,400 area, making the current retest very important for a short-term recovery.

A successful defense would allow BTC to revisit $66,800, where the recent rally stopped, followed by the ceiling of the channel near $67,500. The three-day closing heat map shows a short-term decline concentrated between $66,500 and $67,300, with another major rally near $68,100.

Commenting on the setup, crypto trader Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin could move to $67,500–$68,000 as long as it holds $65,000.

“BTC is correcting but still holding above the $65,000 level. As long as this holds, Bitcoin may cover $67,500–68,000 in the near future.”

Crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder gave a cautious opinion after maintaining a short position from the $67,000 region. Snyder identified a potential long entry only after it swept below $65,000 and retained $68,100 as an upside that would require confirmation.

Momentum has weakened on the 4-hour chart. The MACD line fell to 285.70, below the signal line at 398.23, while the histogram has moved to minus 112.53. The relative strength index fell to 53.52 from above 60, leaving positive momentum but still not strong enough to warrant an immediate breakout.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading above the 20-day simple moving average at $64,232 and the 50-day average at $63,171. Those levels support a recovery structure, but BTC remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at $70,044 and $72,602, respectively.

The daily reading of Aroon Down rose to 85.71%, while Aroon Up fell to zero, giving traders control despite the recent rebound. A daily close above $66,800 would weaken that bearish reading and pave the way toward $68,000 and the 100-day moving average.

The downside risk could increase if Bitcoin closes below the channel floor and loses $65,000. The heat map places long liquidity around $64,800, $64,500 and $64,000, while the moving averages create another support band between $63,170 and $64,230.

A break below $63,170 would stage a temporary recovery and reveal $61,500, followed by the late June lows near $59,000. Another oil gain, higher Treasury yields, or other escalations involving Iran could accelerate that move even if ETF inflows remain positive.