The price of Bitcoin fell to above $65,000 on July 27 as the suspension of US-Iran strikes reduced oil and restored demand for the dangerous commodity.
Summary
- Bitcoin traded at $65,386recovery from the daily low of $64,892.
- The 4-hour RSI reached 58.64while a bullish MACD crossover supports a reversal.
- $67,181 remains key resistancewith significant downside liquidity centered around $63,000-$63,500.
Bitcoin price rises as US-Iran tensions slow
Bitcoin was trading at $65,386 during the July 27 chart session, almost unchanged on the day after moving between $64,892 and $65,744. The recent improvement extended its recovery from the July 25 low near $63,700.
The catalyst came from the Middle East, where the United States and Iran avoided attacking each other for three days in a row. Regional mediators reported progress on a temporary ceasefire, although Washington and Tehran have not resumed direct talks. AP reported that Iran and Oman have also discussed how to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices fell sharply as the temporary suspension eased fears of a long-term supply disruption. Brent crude fell 6.5% to $90.45, while a weaker oil outlook supported stocks, cryptocurrencies and other sensitive markets. Bitcoin rose to around $65,155 during the session.
Lower energy prices could reduce near-term inflationary pressure, which is an important factor for US crypto investors ahead of the Federal Reserve’s July 28-29 policy meeting. However, futures markets still gave a 33% chance of a rate hike, up from 16% a week earlier, Reuters reported.
The geopolitical risk has not disappeared either. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran did not request renewed talks with Washington and reported no change in the status of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a separate Reuters report.
Bitcoin indicators favor another test of $67,181
Bitcoin remains within the corresponding ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. The lower boundary now passes around $64,000, while the upper trendline is approaching the $67,800-$68,000 region.
BTC rebounded from the bottom of the trendline on July 25 and moved back above $65,000, maintaining the pattern of the high decline established at the beginning of July. So the channel remains active unless the traders force a 4-hour close under rising support.
Pressure indicators have also improved. The 4-hour relative strength index rose to 58.64 from below 40, placing it above its 47.45 moving average without entering overbought territory.
The moving convergence divergence indicator has completed a bullish crossover. Its histogram rose to 141.34, indicating that positive momentum is being rebuilt after the pullback of July 21-25.
The daily indicators are not so decisive but still dependable and constructive. The Aroon Up reading stood at 57.14%, while the Aroon Down fell to zero, indicating that the recent highs had more weight than the recent lows. Chaikin Money Flow remained positive at 0.04, indicating modest net buying pressure rather than aggressive capital inflows.
Bitcoin must now close above the daily resistance at $67,181 to leave its current consolidation range. That level rejected the July 21 development and is near the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel.
The closing heat map puts $68,000 in reach
The three-day heat map of CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin has cleared several ranges available between $64,500 and $65,300 during its rally. This move may have forced some short positions to be closed, adding buy orders to the rally.
Other closing bands appear between $65,800 and $66,600. A sustained move above the recent intraday high of $65,744 could pull price into these positions before BTC challenges $67,181.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows also identified $68,000 as a possible target if US lawmakers make progress on the CLARITY Act.
“Any chance of a move forward could send Bitcoin to $68,000 soon,” Pillows wrote.
That target is roughly the same as the upper boundary of the ascending channel. However, the policy catalyst remains uncertain. Polymarket brokers put the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at about 38% as of July 27, with $2.8 million in market bets.
Demand for the US spot Bitcoin ETF remains uneven. Funds recorded $33 million in net inflows after three weeks of weak activity, but SoSoValue data showed net outflows of $240.08 million on July 24. The mixed flow suggests that institutional demand has improved without confirming further reversals.
BTC risks a retracement to $63,000 if support fails
The bullish setup could weaken if Bitcoin loses the channel stage near $64,000. The daily chart places a broad range support at $61,506, leaving room for a deeper decline if the current low structure is broken.
The closing heat map points to the strongest ranges between $63,000 and $63,500. These bright bands could attract the price if the weekend gets a break or tensions between the US and Iran return.
According to crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin rallies on the weekend are often followed. He is looking for a possible short setup after a sweep of the recent high, with $63,700 as the initial target. Snyder identified the $60,000 district as his preferred starting point for a potential long-term position if the correction deepens.
For a bullish case, Bitcoin needs to defend $64,000 and break $67,181. That would reveal $68,000, where the channel’s ceiling and analyst target meet. A rejection followed by a move below $64,000 would instead put $63,500, $61,506, and finally $60,000 back into focus.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are for educational purposes only.
