Bitcoin fell nearly 3% toward $63,000 after stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and reduced expectations for a short-term rate cut.
Summary
- Bitcoin fell nearly 3% to $63,282 as strong US jobs data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish outlook.
- Technical indicators turned bearish after BTC broke below the ascending channel and key Fibonacci support.
- Analysts warn that a loss of the $62,400 support area could trigger a decline to June’s retest near $59,000.
According to data from the US Labor Department, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 in the week ended June 13, down from 230,000 revised last week.
The report came one day after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 FOMC meeting, marking the fourth consecutive break while policymakers hinted at the possibility of further tightening in 2026. The idea prompted traders to reduce exposure to risky assets.
Oil markets provided little support despite crude prices falling sharply following reports of progress on the US-Iran framework agreement. While lower energy prices may ease inflation concerns, traders remain focused on the Fed’s latest forecast and the strength of the US labor market.
Derivatives markets have also turned defensive. Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $64,000 as long positions were cleared across major markets, while traders reassessed the possibility of a near-term rate cut. At the same time, ongoing unemployment claims rose to 1.81 million, data that provided some evidence of labor market weakness but failed to resolve the market’s reaction to the reduction in primary unemployment claims.
Bitcoin is losing rising channel support as traders point to low liquidity areas
The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin breaking below the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has been guiding the higher price action since the June 5 retracement from near $59,000. The breakout occurred just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $64,950, an area that served as support during the recent recovery attempt.
The next major support sits near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $62,400. A daily close below that area could reveal a June low near $59,175, which again represents a modest downside target from a channel failure.
Momentum indicators have weakened in line with the downturn. The RSI on the four-hour chart dropped to 38, placing it below the neutral zone, while the MACD produced a bearish crossover and shifted deeper into negative territory.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has once again formed a bearish flag after its retracement from the June low near $59,175 has stopped below the $67,000-$68,000 resistance zone. A confirmed breach from the flag will strengthen the bearish case and bring the $60,000-$59,175 support area back into focus.
Chaikin Money Flow remains below zero at around 0.12, indicating that capital continues to leave the market despite last week’s retracement attempt.
Liquidation data from CoinGlass highlights a dense cluster of available positions between $63,000 and $63,500. Additional upside is based on $61,000 and $62,000, while short stops remain at around $65,000 and $66,500. Since Bitcoin trades directly on long-term correlations, volatility could remain high over the next few periods.
Commenting on the recent decline, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa warned that Bitcoin could return to the region of $ 60,000 in the coming days if the current support area allows.
A break below $62K could open the door to a June revaluation
Analysts are increasingly focusing on whether Bitcoin can defend the current support region. According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, the market is approaching a critical level that could determine the next move.
“This is the level that BTC needs to hold. It’s important. If it doesn’t, we’re going to test a lower level and the markets are going to go down a lot in Altcoins.”
A further move below $62,400 would strengthen the case and increase the chances of a retest of the June lows near $59,000. Apart from technical factors, another inflation data surprise or more hawkish comments from Fed officials could further reduce expectations for policy easing and add pressure to all crypto markets.
For the bulls, recovering the broken channel support and finding the $64,950-$66,700 area would be the first sign that the sellers are losing control. Until then, traders remain focused on low-liquidity areas as Bitcoin struggles to stabilize following the Fed meeting and stronger-than-expected labor market data.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are for educational purposes only.
