Bitcoin price briefly rose above $64,000 on Tuesday after the June Consumer Price Index came in softer than forecast, giving traders a new reason to bet the Federal Reserve will pull back on further tightening.
The Labor Department reported that the headline CPI fell 0.1% in June from the previous month, bringing the annual rate down to about 3.9% from 4.2% in May. A drop in fuel prices of around 10% has made the biggest drop. The price of Bitcoin, which had spent the last week under the pressure of inflation and the risk of the country, turned to the highest in the publication and traded near $ 63,800, which is a gain of about 2% per day.
Soft inflation data paves the way for rate cuts, and lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-paying assets. As readings jumped the bell, Treasury yields eased, the dollar pulled back against major currencies, and equities moved into the green. Gold has been added to its latest development.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, held at around 2.9% year-on-year, above the Fed’s 2% target and a sign that underlying price pressures have not broken. That streak keeps a July trip on the table.
Ahead of the release, futures markets are pricing in a two-out-of-three chance of the Fed holding its 3.5% to 3.75% range at the July 28-29 meeting, with the rest betting on a quarterly hike.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh added to the uncertainty. Minutes from the June meeting marked AI-driven energy demand as a new source of inflation, something that complicates any reading of where prices start. Warsh will testify this week, and traders will be listening to his tone for signals on the way to September.
The fuel drop that flattered the June number could reverse quickly. President Trump reinstated a shipping embargo on Iranian vessels and moved to control the Strait of Hormuz, and crude has retreated above $80. A continued oil recovery will feed directly into the inflation the Fed is fighting to contain.
Bitcoin price setup
For Bitcoin’s price, the setup is a balancing act between optimism for looser policy and caution about what a renewed energy shock could mean. Spot ETF flows, which fueled much of the demand last year, have shown signs of exhaustion, leaving the value more exposed to large swings.
Bitfinex analysts wrote to Bitcoin Magazine What the Bitcoin ETF seeks is not price- or sentiment-agnostic, and bids appear on cool days and reverses volatility. Analysts think this shows that Bitcoin remains a highly dependent asset.
They note that the 30-day average of net ETF flows has been in an outflow since mid-May 2026, although daily usage has fallen from $193 million in early June to $88.9 million now, a slow decline that has not yet found a basis for institutional demand.
Over the past 7 days Bitcoin price traded in the range of $61,600–$64,700, peaking at $64,400 around July 10-12 before dropping to $61,600 on July 13. It has since rebounded to $63,748 (up 1% back during the week).
The next broad market markers are coming soon: Q2 earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America land this week, and the July FOMC decision follows in two weeks.
At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin is close to $63,780.
