Brent crude oil prices averaged $94.57 per barrel on Monday morning, up more than 5% since late Friday, as CNBC reported that Kpler marine data recorded virtually zero tanker crossings in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, with shipping advisory firm Ambrey telling all vessels to cancel any scheduled Iranian VF sailings.
Summary
- WTI crude rose 5.6% to $88.54 a barrel, fully reversing Friday’s 9% drop that followed Iran’s brief announcement that the flow was fully open.
- Kpler indicated that no oil tankers crossed the strait on Sunday, while Windward counted at least 13 vessels that had turned back on Saturday when Iran reimposed restrictions.
- ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put the combined supply loss at around 600 million barrels blocked for about 50 days, which is an unusual figure immediately under any temporary ceasefire.
The Brent crude oil price index called for an almost dire situation on Monday: the strait has been closed for almost 50 days, a ceasefire that expires on Wednesday, no Iranian delegation has been confirmed in the talks with Pakistan, and the US seizure of an Iranian ship the IRGC has promised to retaliate. WTI crude at $88.54 reflects a picture of global energy where 10 to 11 million barrels per day of delivery remains constrained.
“Markets trade in a world where there is a lot of speculation, speculation, and speculation, but very little concrete information,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief economist Paul Donovan wrote in a note Monday morning. He described the reversal from Friday’s 9% decline to Monday’s 5% recovery as being driven by official signals rather than any change in supply conditions.
Shipping advisory firm Ambrey issued a directive on Monday telling ships to cancel any scheduled passage to Hormuz as soon as they receive VHF warnings from Iranian forces, effectively advising commercial operators to treat the route as closed until further notice.
Kpler’s figure of almost zero tank crossings on Sunday is a clear indication that the physical market is still very disturbed regardless of the official statements. Windward counted at least 13 ships that turned back on Saturday when Iran announced the closure of the shipping ban and after the IRGC fired on two Indian-flagged ships trying to leave.
Friday’s short window of ship movement showed the real need for a commercial reduction from the weeks of the shutdown and represented the entire success of the demilitarization operation: one day of high transport activity before the IRGC resumed firing. Oil market participants have made it clear that they need continued assurance of safe passage before carrying out routine tanker operations. A single day of traffic followed by a renewed attack does not meet that limit.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber called for Hormuz to be returned to the world “as it was,” noting that nearly 600 million barrels had been blocked in 50 days. That cumulative figure represents nearly six days of global oil consumption and cannot be achieved through any single diplomatic announcement.
Why Brent Is Staying Below Its High War
Brent at $94.57 is well below the $114 to $166 range reached at the height of the dispute in March. There are several factors that moderate the price from such extreme behavior. The IEA compiled a release of 400 million barrels from emergency storage facilities in mid-March, representing about four days of global consumption. The US temporarily suspended its embargo on 30 oil tankers linked to Russia, adding another station. China entered into conflict with several strategic reserves, providing a deterrent to the world’s largest oil exporter.
The result is a market with ongoing partial shutdowns instead of a complete and permanent crisis. All credible signals point to a bearish Brent. All increases extend to the $100 level that analysts identify as the upper limit at which global growth projections begin to change materially. Monday’s $94.57 sits within that range, not showing a correction or full upside.
What Crude Oil Price Level Means in Crypto
As for the volatility of the bitcoin oil market, Brent at $94.57 puts the crude in the range where inflation expectations are directly suppressing the prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, removing the main macro key that institutional Bitcoin demand has been calling for in 2026. Every week oil holds above $90 extends the period in which that target is not present.
The tollbooth model of Hormuz Iran worked briefly during the cease-fire, charging tanks one dollar a barrel of Bitcoin, creating a narrative of demand for the structure of BTC that partially removed the great pressure to risk: if oil transactions could not be included in the crypto, the commodity found an active role in the world’s energy settlement. That narrative completely disappears when the road is completely closed with no toll system in place, which is where the Monday market finds itself.
