CryptoQuant’s signal has turned Bitcoin into an early bull zone for the first time since March 2023, analysts say.
Summary
- CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Index entered bullish territory on May 12, using the Profit and Loss Index to confirm a regime change.
- The last confirmed green signal in March 2023 preceded an ongoing bull run taking Bitcoin from $20,000 to over $73,000 in April 2024.
- Analysts are flagging March 2022 as a key exception, when the index briefly turns green before Bitcoin extends a deep decline into 2023.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle index entered bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, indicating what analysts described as a potential shift away from bear market behavior. The index is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which includes a ratio of MVRV, NUPL, and a comparison of SOPR ratios for Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote in X that the change “generally indicates that the worst phase of the correction has passed and that the market structure is starting to stabilize.” Bitcoin was trading above $80,000 when the index was volatile, up nearly 35% from its February low of $60,000.
Why analysts aren’t calling the bull market confirmed yet
The last confirmed green reading came in March 2023 and lasted until August 2024, including the period when Bitcoin rose from around $20,000 to highs above $73,000. The March 2022 signal is very different: the index briefly turned green that month before Bitcoin extended its decline into 2023.
Matt Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the index as a tool for regime change rather than a predictive crystal ball. “Historically, it has been very useful to identify when bitcoin stops behaving like a bear market asset,” he said. Continued demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before the signal can be considered confirmed.
Moreno ticked off a few secondary metrics that indicate fatigue in the current setup. Bitcoin must firmly break the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected many rally attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed for price action.
What supporting data shows and what Hayes sees
Supporting the regime-shift thesis, the April ETF entering the Bitcoin product area reached $2.44 billion, the strongest institutional accumulation in one month since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL rating currently sits at 4.5, the third highest reading in Bitcoin history, with the only comparable previous reading occurring in a 20 cycle and 20 bottoms.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued separately that Bitcoin has already found its cycle low at $60,000 in early 2026 and identified $90,000 as the threshold where any rally would explode towards the previous high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential upside of $85,000 to $90,000,” citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.
