Bitcoin climbed back above $60,000 after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to indicate the direction of future interest rate decisions during the ECB’s policy discussion.
Summary
- Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000 after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh declined to hint at the future path of interest rates.
- CME FedWatch shows that markets still expect rates to remain unchanged in July despite inflation concerns.
- Polymarket continues to price a rate hike in 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects rates to remain on hold this year.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at around $60,175 at the time of writing after rebounding by around 3% from intraday lows below the key level of 58,000. The move followed comments from Warsh, who also avoided giving monetary policy guidance while reiterating that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.
Bitcoin bounces back as Warsh avoids policy signals
Speaking during an ECB Forum panel, Warsh declined to say whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting. Instead, he repeated the position he took after taking office that the central bank would not commit to a future policy process and would continue to respond to economic data as it became available.
He said this while traders continued to expect interest rates to remain unchanged at the end of this month. According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently give a 70.6% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting.
Warsh also addressed inflation, saying expectations fell in the first four weeks of the latest period despite concerns related to the US-Iran conflict. He added that inflationary risks have eased while reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s commitment to returning inflation to 2%.
As crypto.news reported after the June FOMC meeting, Warsh also left rates unchanged at that meeting. Bitcoin fell to around $65,430 following the decision, while Ethereum traded near $1,770. The Federal Reserve’s updated projections at the time showed that nine policymakers expected at least one rate hike before the end of the year.
Those forecasts continued to shape market expectations even after Warsh repeated at the ECB Forum that future policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data.
The expected rate of increase continues to pressure crypto
Although traders see little chance of a July rate hike, expectations for further tightening later this year have not disappeared. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 54% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of 2026.
High borrowing costs have generally remained a concern for cryptocurrencies because high interest rates tend to support demand for cash and short-term fixed income assets over riskier investments like Bitcoin.
Separate crypto.news reporting also noted that Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged throughout the year. The bank, however, warned that price increases may return if inflation continues or if the unemployment rate falls sharply.
Aside from monetary policy, another source of uncertainty for Bitcoin has come from corporate supply. As previously reported by crypto.news, the possibility that Strategy could sell an estimated $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin remains a contributing factor to the pressure selling in the market.
Political attention has also remained on Federal Reserve policy. Before Warsh became chairman, President Donald Trump repeatedly called for lower interest rates. After June’s decision to keep rates unchanged, however, Trump responded without harsh criticism and continued to praise the new Fed chairman while providing no timeline for future rate cuts.
