Arena will not use real money to place bets, sources told The New York Times.
Social media giant Meta is building a market forecasting app similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, the New York Times reports.
The new app – internally called ‘Arena’ – is the latest in Mark Zuckerberg’s efforts to monetize changing internet trends and tap into emerging social behavior online.
Sources told the publication that Meta will not allow users to bet for real money on the app, likely opting for a points-based system instead. Although the use of betting money was not completely ruled out.
It is reported that Zuckerberg has tasked a small team at Meta to build Arena, which will work independently of Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook and Messenger.
Meta, which has more than 3.5bn daily users across its platforms, hopes to grow Arena by directing its audience to the new app.
Prediction markets allow participants to bet on real-world events, from politics, to entertainment and sports. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have been very committed to promoting their platforms to American users in recent years, including receiving approval from president Donald Trump.
These prediction markets, however, have led to a huge increase in internet gambling in the US, many experts have highlighted. The problem is exacerbated by heavy advertising on all sporting events, public transport and billboards, making it difficult for gambling addicts to quit.
Kalshi and Polymarket combined accounted for $24bn in global trade volume in April this year, according to the Pew Research Center. In comparison, the total amount paid by legal sportsbooks in the US reached about $14bn per month on average by 2025.
“Put aside the debate over whether predictive market apps are investing or gambling, they are adaptive. And Meta is already facing a high-profile case with concerns about creating an addictive product,” noted Forrester VP research director Mike Proulx.
“The irony here is hard to miss and not a good thing for a company that is already under scrutiny.”
Although Meta does not share official numbers for young users across its platforms, the EU has revealed that around 10-12pc of children under the age of 13 access Instagram or Facebook in the bloc.
The Commission recently found that the social media giant has not done enough to reduce the risks children face when using its platforms.
Meta has made previous efforts to expand what it offers to its users. In 2019, the company’s employees tried to create different applications for social media, for all podcasts, music and travel – but no one got enough traction.
In 2020, the company experimented with prediction markets with an app called ‘Forecast’. This was quietly closed in 2022.
“Meta follows its usual copycat playbook,” Proulx added.
“The prediction market is booming, especially among young men, and Meta wants a piece of that engagement. But this is yet another market that’s ahead of its own rules. And like Meta, this category comes with baggage.”
In Europe, countries including Germany, Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands have recently announced that they will direct the platforms to the speculation market without a license. Meanwhile, Spain temporarily blocked Polymarket and Kalshi.
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