SpaceX shares pulled a $63 fair value estimate from Morningstar as bullish forecasts forced the price to $190 following the company’s public market offering.
Summary
- Morningstar estimates that SpaceX is worth $63 per share, well below its IPO price of $135.
- Despite valuation concerns, some analysts believe strong demand could propel the stock to $190.
- SpaceX speculation has boosted activity across crypto markets, including SPCX, Velvet, and Hyperliquid tokens.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Morningstar analysts believe that SpaceX stock is trading above its fundamental value despite the high demand surrounding the offering.
The research firm estimated a fair value of $63 per share, well below the indicative IPO price of $135, suggesting the stock could be worth less than half of what investors currently value.
Discussions about valuation have intensified as SpaceX has become one of the most watched stocks in recent years. While the Morningstar rating points to a possible correction if investor enthusiasm fades, some market analysts maintained a more optimistic view and predicted that the stock could rise to $190.
Demand remains strong despite valuation concerns
A Wall Street Journal report noted that Morningstar does not expect an immediate sale despite its valuation warning. Analysts at the firm argue that strong interest from institutional and retail investors could keep the shares up long after the listing.
Adding to that narrative, market analyst Walter Bloomberg said the offering attracted more than $350 billion, underscoring the strong appetite for SpaceX shares ahead of the listing. Bloomberg later reported that the stock opened at $150, above its IPO price of $135, before rising to about $161.68, giving the company a stated market value of about $1.96 billion at the time of Nasdaq’s debut.
Evidence of that need has emerged throughout the crypto market. A previous crypto.news report noted that Backpack Securities and Sunrise launched SPCX, a tokenized asset in Solana backed by shares of SpaceX. Eligible holders can convert the tokens into actual shares, creating a blockchain-based route to SpaceX exposure.
Meanwhile, Binance Wallet’s SpaceX IPO campaign reportedly attracted nearly $557 million in subscriptions. Binance has set 135 USDC as the indicative token price before payments, while the offering includes a 5% underwriting fee and subscriptions accepted in USDC.
Crypto markets have boosted SpaceX speculation
Outside of traditional markets, the interest in SpaceX has spread to several areas of crypto trading.
According to a report by crypto.news, Velvet’s native token has grown more than 1,400% in the past week after the platform promoted the exposure of SpaceX through its SPCX pre-IPO market.
Derivatives traders have entered into derivatives linked to SpaceX. The perpetual SPCX synthetic Hyperliquid market has attracted significant activity as investors seek exposure before regular stock trading begins.
Hyperliquid has shown volatile valuations trading above the IPO price, helping fuel higher trading volumes and pushing HYPE futures open interest to $2.56 billion.
Morningstar, however, argued that investor happiness alone will not determine SpaceX’s long-term value. The company expects that future performance depends on the growth of revenue, profitability, and the company’s ability to meet the expectations built into its valuation.
Limited share availability may continue to support prices in the early stages of trading, according to the company’s assessment. However, over time, more shares entering the market can increase selling pressure and force investors to focus more on the business’s fundamentals.
If those fundamentals fail to support current expectations, Morningstar believes SpaceX stock could move steadily closer to its $63 target.
