Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced at XRP Las Vegas that the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of May, his third public deadline for the bill after predicting an 80% chance of April passing on Fox Business in February and updating in May at two consecutive industry events.
Summary
- Garlinghouse first gave an 80% chance of an April pass on Fox Business on February 19, revised it to the end of May at the FII Priority Miami Conference on March 27, and confirmed the end of May at the Semafor World Economic Summit on April 13.
- He says the stablecoin yield dispute that has crippled the bill since January is close to a resolution, and that the current level of frustration in Washington is historically a sign that a compromise is finally being made.
- Senator Thom Tillis has confirmed that he will ask Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott to set a mark when the Senate returns on May 11, with the actual date of the committee’s vote the week of May 11.
Brad Garlinghouse confirmed his timeline for the end of the May CLARITY Act at XRP Las Vegas on April 30, three months after he first placed an 80% chance of April passing during an appearance on Fox Business. Disruption Banking reported that Garlinghouse is betting the bill clears the Senate Banking Committee, passes the Senate, and reaches Trump’s desk before the Memorial Day break on May 21. “When people are at the highest level of frustration, that’s when they end up compromising, and it’s happening. I think we are,” Garlinghouse said.
As crypto.news reported, the 2030 cliff isn’t Garlinghouse’s only framework — Senator Cynthia Lummis tweeted in April that this is “our last chance to pass the Clarity Act until at least 2030.” Senator Bernie Moreno says exactly the same thing. Both senators framed the window as exceptionally narrow because the current tri-branch alignment of the House, Senate, and White House on crypto legislation is rare and may not survive the midterm elections. Garlinghouse’s review is not controversial. As the bill has passed successive deadlines, support for it has grown. The coalition supporting the bill has grown to more than 120 firms including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz. As crypto.news was written, those companies sent a joint letter demanding that it be written immediately on April 23.
The stablecoin yield dispute that has blocked the bill since January – the fight over whether third-party platforms can offer rewards on stablecoin balances – is described by Garlinghouse as largely resolved following a White House CEA report finding a full yield ban could cost consumers 800 million a year. All that remains is a calendar problem: the Senate returns on May 11, the Memorial Day recess begins on May 21, and Speaker Tim Scott has yet to put a date on the calendar. As crypto.news tracked, the prices of Polymarket 2026 passed by about 46%, Galaxy Research at 50-50, and TD Cowen at one-third – making Garlinghouse’s forecast for the end of May a remarkable thing against the consensus of the market.
