Earlier this week, we published our first piece looking at the headline figures from 1-7 June on prediction market operator Kalshi. This piece dives deep, looking at the games that are generating the most interest; which games saw the most money and why.
We’ve taken the biggest commercial Counter-Strike, Valorant, Dota 2 and League of Legends matches and looked at some of the key systems to see what makes the game attract more volume.
CS2: IEM Cologne Major Drives $23.7M CS2 Week on Kalshi
| # | Compare | The day | The winner | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HUGE against NRG | 05 June | GREAT | $1,435,378 |
| 2 | GamerLegion vs. B8 Esports | 07 June | B8 Sports | $1,053,796 |
| 3 | M80 vs. B8 Esports | 03 June | B8 Sports | $1,046,822 |
| 4 | GamerLegion vs. BetBoom | 06 June | BetBoom | $971,137 |
| 5 | FUT Esports vs. G2 | 07 June | FUT Sports | $890,194 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. TYLOO | 04 June | TYLOO | $870,941 |
| 7 | MIBR vs. Legacy | 06 June | The MIBR | $712,493 |
| 8 | FlyQuest vs. Team Liquid | 05 June | FlyQuest | $674,645 |
| 9 | BIG vs. GamerLegion | 04 June | GamerLegion | $614,484 |
| 10 | Monte vs. G2 | 06 June | G2 | $597,000 |
Every game in this week’s CS2 top ten was part of the ongoing IEM Cologne Major 2026, one of the biggest Counter-Strike events of the year. Naturally, with everything related to betting, big events attract big crowds and, as a result, see an increase in betting/trading activity. The work at Kalshi proves the same. And discussed in our previous episode, Counter-Strike’s combat audience is prone to gambling, and of all the data made public by providers and operators historically, it has been a top generator of capture.
The top-grossing game of the week was BIG vs. NRG, at $1.44 million. The match went to three maps, with BIG edging NRG 2-1 (13-5, 12-16, 16-12). The other two games that saw over $1,000,000 in sales are both B8 games. The M80 vs B8 match ended 2-0, but the second map went into overtime and it took a minute for M80 to come back (finishing 22-20 to B8).
A broad pattern that is clearly identified in the data is that consistency (longer duration, with more volatility) results in higher trading volume. Conversely, one-sided games (eg BIG vs. Gaimin which saw BIG win the map 13-1) don’t tickle the sides as much.
It can be debated whether these are fan trading positions, or whether bots that trade in delayed esports data are on the rise – and this is a topic we will explore in future threads. What is clear from our first data pull is that volume follows both the prestige of the tournament, and the tension in it.
League of Legends: Multiplayer LoL Action Generates $8.7M Across 116 Games
| # | Compare | The day | The winner | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karmine Corp vs. G2 Esports | 07 June | G2 Sports | $1,021,324 |
| 2 | Dplus KIA competes with KT Rolster | 07 June | KT Rolster | $866,579 |
| 3 | Team Liquid vs. FlyQuest | 07 June | Team Liquid | $698,350 |
| 4 | CCG Esports vs. Winthrop University | 05 June | CCG Sports | $572,796 |
| 5 | Team WE vs. Anyone’s Tale | 01 June | Team WE | $502,238 |
| 6 | LGD Gaming vs. ThunderTalk Gaming | 02 June | LGD games | $444,829 |
| 7 | G3V E-sports vs. SDM Tigres | 02 June | G3V E-sports | $344,319 |
| 8 | Of BuM! vs. Vivo Keyd Stars Academy | 02 June | Vivo Keyd Stars Acd. | $320,351 |
| 9 | Karmine Corp vs. Movistar KOI | 06 June | Karmine Corp | $307,580 |
| 10 | mCon esports vs. The Bandits | 02 June | mCon esports | $286,546 |
League of Legends made $8.7 million from 116 games this week, pulling in volume from many international leagues. Unlike CS2, which was focused on a single tournament, LoL’s volume was spread across the LEC (Europe), LCK (Korea), LPL (China), and smaller regional circuits.
The biggest match was Karmine Corp vs. G2 Esports at $1.02 million – the only LoL market to exceed seven figures this week. Both are prominent LEC organizations with large followings, and the similarities between them often attract strong viewers and wide attention.
The LCK offered the second largest match: Dplus KIA vs. KT Rolster for $867K. Korean league games have historically attracted strong Kalshi volume and this game was no exception.
One notable entry is CCG Esports vs. Winthrop University for $573K in NACL Spring Lower Bracket finals. These are two names that are not top international organizations, but two keys that we previously identified in the Counter-Strike trade were also at play here. The game had a lot on the line, the final of the Lower Bracket, and went to five maps, with CCG eventually winning 3-2.
Valorant: NRG Pop Dominates Strong Kalshi Markets With Three Of The Top Four
| # | Compare | The day | The winner | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NRG vs. LOUD | 01 June | NRG | $416,781 |
| 2 | NRG Academy vs. SaD Esports | 02 June | Sports of SaD | $359,621 |
| 3 | Global Esports vs. Leviatán Esports | 07 June | Leviatán Esports | $271,325 |
| 4 | NRG vs. XLG Gaming | 06 June | NRG | $233,098 |
| 5 | Alliance Guardians vs. Dynamo Esports | 01 June | Guardians of the Alliance | $141,524 |
| 6 | FUT Esports vs. FULL SENSE | 07 June | FUT Sports | $138,136 |
| 7 | Dragon Ranger Gaming vs. Team Vitality | 06 June | Group Vitality | $130,922 |
| 8 | YFP Gaming vs. Division One | 03 June | YFP Games | $114,964 |
| 9 | FlyQuest vs. QoR | 03 June | QoR | $110,671 |
| 10 | Team Evictix vs. Nightblood Gaming | 02 June | Nightblood Gaming | $74,474 |
Valorant generated $2.1 million in just 13 games this week. The top two markets alone account for more than a third of all Valorant volume, showing how concentrated interest can be among a small number of high-profile brands.
The biggest market was NRG vs. LOUD for $417K, which saw NRG emerge victorious. LOUD commands one of Valorant’s biggest fanbases in North America, and despite a 3-0 romp in the ESWC Lower Bracket finals, it took a huge hit in trading volume.
NRG vs. XLG Gaming ($233K) also appeared in the top 10 and the NRG academy attracted a lot of interest against SaD esports, in a group stage match that SaD took 2-1.
Dota 2: LGD Gaming Is the Best Selling Dota 2 Team of the Week as Yandex Causes Controversy
| # | Compare | The day | The winner | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LGD Gaming vs. Aurora | 06 June | LGD games | $403,305 |
| 2 | LGD Gaming vs. BetBoom Team | 07 June | LGD games | $259,637 |
| 3 | Aurora vs. The Falcons team | 05 June | Aurora | $174,266 |
| 4 | BetBoom team vs. The Yandex team | 06 June | Yandex group | $161,249 |
| 5 | Yandex team vs. Aurora | 04 June | Yandex group | $140,207 |
| 6 | LGD Gaming vs. The Yandex team | 04 June | Yandex group | $134,640 |
| 7 | BetBoom team vs. The Falcons team | 05 June | The BetBoom Team | $89,320 |
| 8 | Team Liquid vs. The Falcons team | 04 June | Team Falcons | $78,755 |
| 9 | Team Liquid vs. LGD Gaming | 05 June | LGD games | $71,501 |
| 10 | Aurora vs. The BetBoom Group | 02 June | – | $8,562 |
Dota 2 made $1.53 million in 11 games. Pretty much every match came from BLAST Slam VII, where Team Yandex hit upset after upset to emerge victorious.
The game that attracted the most volume was a great lower bracket series between China’s powerhouse LGD Gaming and Aurora. The game was the best of the three, but it is scheduled to be thrown and a good live trading event. Aurora took the first map in 50 minutes, before LGD evened the series.
The final was a spectacular 110 minute affair, the game very competitive and Aurora (Radiant – green color above), setting the stage for the first 80 minutes or so. It wasn’t until later that LGD was able to take the lead and finally close out the game, and the series.
Again, this fits the pattern of the game with a lot of trading power. A long, close series, with many twists and a big decider game saw LGD Gaming’s price to win down 20c, with a number of spikes above and below the 50 mark as the final game progressed.
With The International coming soon, it will be interesting to see how much volume Kalshi sells. The event is taking place in China, which may mean that it is still far from ideal trading hours for those in the West.
