Bitcoin price predictions changed dramatically early Friday as CoinDesk reported that the perpetual support rate dropped to the worst level since 2023 in the seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the market’s very short stop is forced to unwind.
Summary
- BTC was trading near $74,700 in Asian morning hours on Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day, with a 10-day rally in global equities stalling ahead of an April 22 expiration in Iran.
- The 7-day moving average has dropped to around -0.005% per Glassnode data, last seen during the FTX crash in late 2022, with all historical episodes of similar extremes – March 2020, mid-2021, August 2024 – synchronizing with spot price declines.
- On-chain data shows most active bitcoin holders are currently underwater relative to their cost base, meaning a rally driven by the squeeze could face selling pressure from holders who have found BTC in the $75,000 to $95,000 range by 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) price predictions changed dramatically early Friday as CoinDesk reported that the perpetual support rate dropped to the worst level since 2023 in the seven-day moving average, with ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short-term market conditions are forced to taper off.
BTC was changing hands near $74,700 in early Asian trade on Friday, up 3.5% on the week but down 0.4% on the day as a 10-day meeting of global equities stalled ahead of next week’s Iran deadline. The commodity rose from the $60,000s through March and April despite continued unrelenting subsidies, meaning shorts were paying off for weeks while the price continued to rise.
Spreads are periodic payments between long and short holders of fixed-term futures contracts, designed to keep contract prices in line with space. When prices fall, shorts pay off over the long term – a situation that only occurs when speculation is heavily skewed against price. The 7-day moving average dropped to around -0.005%, according to Glassnode data, the last reading seen in the low FTX area in late 2022.
“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is very short,” Reis-Faria said. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, many of those positions could be liquidated, and the move could quickly accelerate.” He is targeting $125,000 within 30 to 60 days if the short base opens, citing buying pressure from large corporate accumulators as the likely force behind the forced liquidation of the entire short base.
All previous historical episodes of similar monetary excesses have coincided with property prices. March 2020, mid-2021, the FTX crash in late 2022, the yen bear trade in August 2024, and the Liberation Day selloff in April 2025 all showed negative funding offset by a sharp recovery. For traders who are tracking the prospects of a ceasefire during the April 22 deadline as a timing stimulus, this historical pattern reinforces the bearish view in the near-term setup.
What Can Prevent a Squeeze Rally
The on-chain data presents a counterpoint to the structure. Many active bitcoin owners are currently underwater relative to their purchase price, meaning any bullish-driven rally near their price could create significant selling pressure from owners who bought in the $75,000 to $95,000 range during the 2025 peak accumulation period. This is sometimes called a “wall of anxious participants” – participants who will not be forced to sell but will sell when they can.
Meeting up to $125,000 would need to absorb that provision in turn, going through each set of cost bases without aggregating. Oversold signals seen in on-chain and technical data support the structurally bullish case, but the distribution of underwater holders complicates a clean squeeze-to-new-high scenario without a strong macro catalyst doing the heavy lifting.
Catalyst Calendar
Three events over the next two weeks will settle the current setup. Iran’s April 22 expiration is the first: a credible extension removes the risk of a country’s tail that has blocked dangerous commodity rallies since February, and a breakdown could push BTC to the $68,000 structural support floor. The FOMC meets on April 28-29, and any dovish signal from Chairman Powell will reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC. The CLARITY Act’s committee confirmation date in early May will add a third potential threat specific to the digital asset market.
