Citibank has cut its 12-month target for Bitcoin to $112,000 and Ethereum to $3,175, warning that stagnant US legislation and waning ETF enthusiasm are on the rise.
Summary
- In a new note cited by ChainCatcher, Citibank cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from 143,000 to 112,000 and lowered its Ethereum target from $4,304 to $3,175, as both traded near record levels.
- Citi blames the comprehensive US crypto legislation that has stagnated, little expectations of ETF penetration and heavy use of the chain, now it is projecting 10 billion dollars of net Bitcoin fund and 2.5 billion dollars of Ethereum products next year, below previous assumptions.
- The bank’s position still reaches 165,000 dollars in Bitcoin and 4,488 dollars in Ethereum if Washington brings clear rules and the demand for ETFs is accelerated again, but it puts the current regime as dependent on diversity and dependent on policy, where trading on the basis and volume is more important than hopium.
Citibank has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), warning that US crypto regulation and fading ETF enthusiasm are taking a toll as prices remain near record highs. In a new note cited by ChainCatcher, the bank cut its Bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000 and lowered its Ethereum target from $4,304 to $3,175.
The downgrade is driven by three pressures: lack of progress on broader US crypto regulations, soft inflow expectations for virtual ETFs, and weak on-chain activity relative to the size of the asset class. Citibank says that, despite the success of the US product headlines, market confidence in Washington remains tense. The CLARITY Act may have passed the House of Representatives, but its progress has stalled in the Senate, leaving a cloud of uncertainty that continues to discourage a deep pool of institutional capital from spending on the measure.
On cash flows, the bank notes that the initial strength of the ETF was not enough to justify its earlier, more aggressive views. It now expects $10 billion in Bitcoin revenue and $2.5 billion in Ethereum revenue over the next 12 months—which is lower than previous forecasts. Correspondingly, the on-chain metrics failed to confirm an important new leg of the country: activity and utilization have improved from the bottom, but not in a way that assures Citi that the current rates can reach its previous goals without a significantly better control background.
Even in this very cautious basic case, the bank stops changing structurally. Citibank’s optimistic stance still puts Bitcoin up $165,000 and Ethereum at $4,488 at the same time, meaning either a clean sweep of the law or a renewed surge in ETF demand could restart the cycle. But the tone of the review is clear: without clear rules from Washington and strong evidence of long-term, resource-driven growth, the easy part of the movement may end.
For marketers, the revised target is less about precision and more about power. The top bank adjusting to these levels is a sign that traditional desks see crypto as locked in a policy-dependent range, not a single upward trend. In that world, basis, volatility and timing of liquidity are more important than narrative; The tape will continue to flow and rule, not just hopium.
