The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have diminished after Galaxy Digital lowered its chances of approval to 50%, even as Senate Republicans continue to seek a vote when lawmakers return from recess.
Summary
- Galaxy Digital has reduced the chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50% despite ongoing Senate debate.
- Senator Tim Scott backed the Senate’s July vote as lawmakers continue to work to resolve key policy disagreements.
- Negotiators are still discussing ethics rules, anti-money laundering measures, and oversight of the digital goods market before the Senate returns.
According to reporter Eleanor Terrett, congressional staff, White House officials, and representatives of the crypto industry have continued to discuss behind closed doors while the US Senate is on recess until July 13. Their discussions are focused on resolving the differences between the different versions of the crypto market structure bill produced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees before the senators reconvene.
Discussions focused on several unresolved issues, including ethical requirements, anti-money laundering provisions, and a regulatory framework for digital asset markets. Reaching an agreement on those points is considered necessary before the legislation goes to the Senate for a vote.
The July timeline faces procedural hurdles
Even if negotiators finalize the bill before lawmakers return, the Senate’s calendar could delay its progress.
Terrett reported that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated that the National Defense Authorization Act will move forward when the Senate resumes in mid-July. As a result, the consideration of the CLARITY Act may go down to the last half of July or even the first week of August.
Time is of the essence because many observers believe the legislation needs to be approved by the Senate before Congress can leave for passage in August. The lack of that legislative window would make it more difficult for the bill to move forward before the end of the 2026 congressional session.
Passing this measure will require bipartisan support. Legislation needs at least 60 votes in the Senate, and Republicans currently have 53 seats. Full Republican support is not guaranteed, as Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul opposed the previous GENIUS Act, making Democratic support essential for the CLARITY Act as well.
Republican support remains intact despite low disapproval
Although negotiations have not yet ended, top Republicans have continued to push for a July vote.
In a recent letter to X, Senator Tim Scott endorsed Major League Leader John Thune’s proposed timeline for bringing crypto market structure legislation before the Senate. Scott said the bipartisan proposal would provide clearer regulatory rules for digital goods, strengthen consumer protections, and help keep innovation in the United States. He also urged lawmakers to advance this law for the benefit of the American people.
While Republican leaders continue to push forward, market expectations have become more cautious. Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law by 2026 to 50%, highlighting the political and procedural challenges that remain before the legislation clears the Senate.
Over the next two weeks, he is expected to play a key role as negotiators work to resolve policy disagreements before senators return to Washington. Whether those discussions yield consensus could determine whether the CLARITY Act reaches the Senate floor in July or loses momentum before Congress’s summer recess.
