Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds To 50-50 As Senate Clock Ends
The Galaxy Digital Research Group has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% just three weeks ago, citing a Senate calendar that grows shorter each week and a bill that still has a consolidated text, scheduled vote, or public commitment from leadership.
The descent, published by Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn, is more of a calendar story than an object story. The bill itself — the CLARITY Act, short for the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act — cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since. No floor date has been set. No motion to proceed is planned.
The CLARITY Act represents the most significant effort yet by Congress to create a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. It draws legal lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establishes standards for when a digital asset is a commodity versus a security, and includes the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which provides protection for certain blockchain developers and node operators.
The bill was passed through the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support, a notable limitation in a political environment where crypto legislation tends to be partisan.
The House passed a version of the 2024 market structure law, but the Senate’s action was a tough decision. The banking and agriculture committees both have jurisdiction, and staff reconciliation of the two committees’ documents is ongoing. No text of the unified law has been made public.
The calendar problem with the Law of CLARITY
With a 60-vote bill — which needs to clear a filibuster — the numbers are tight. The Senate is scheduled to begin its August recess at the end of July. Between now and then, the combined text of Banking and Agriculture still needs to be finalized, a motion to proceed should be filed, a floor debate should be held, and the amendment process should be continued.
After all that, the House will need to act on whatever the Senate produces.
Thorn wrote that Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce a July start date “later” to make the July vote a reality.
Without an announcement to schedule in that timeline, the path shifts to September — and September is ushering in midterm election changes that make scheduling controversial votes difficult.
Competition for floor time is fierce. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act expired on June 12 after Congress failed to reauthorize it, and the Grassley-Cotton-Warner product still needs time down.
The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, the annual defense bill that must be passed, has also not been completed.
And on June 24, President Trump canceled a planned signing of a bipartisan House bill that passed 358-32 in the House and 85-5 in the Senate, and put his signature on Congress’ first passage of the SAVE Act, a citizenship verification bill that Thune said lacked the votes to pass the chamber. That situation adds another leadership battle to an already crowded line.
The calendar is a big topic, but the content of the bill has not been fully resolved. The ethics question remains a major open issue: Van Hollen’s conflict of interest amendment failed 11-13 in committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker continue to make enforced ethics a condition of their support.
Thorn wrote that at least two Republican no-votes — Josh Hawley and Rand Paul — are expected, meaning Democratic crossover support is not an option. Senators supporting the legislation also want more changes to the developer protection language within the BRCA.
The note of the Galaxy identified the conditions that could restore what went wrong: a public agreement on a unified document for Banking and Agriculture, a reliable resolution of the ethics or disputes of the BRCA in a way that closes the strong block of the Democratic Alliance, and the commitment of the leadership of July. A regulatory announcement in the next two weeks, Thorne wrote, would take the company back 60% or more. The continued silence until mid-July will wear you down.
Currently, the bill is waiting at No. 423 on the Senate calendar – a real, but unplanned, chamber that keeps finding other things to do.
