here’s what the markets say

Over 20 days in June, IEM Cologne saw $109.3 million in trade for US-based speculation marketplace Kalshi as a legendary event came to an end in Germany.

The $109.3 million represents the volume of contracts traded, so it does not represent the amount of money wagered, or handling in terms of a standard sportsbook. However, it is a very good figure that will show that there is a lot of interest in esports betting where the size of the event is there to match.

IEM Cologne ran through three Swiss-system team stages before the playoffs to finish once in the LANXESS Arena in Cologne. Stages 1 and 2 were played behind closed doors, before EFG opened the Palladium to 500 fans for Stage 3 matches. The playoffs then headed to the ‘Cathedral of Counter-Strike’ where one of the best to ever grace the server, Nikola “NiKo” Kovač, captured a historic first title with the Major Falcons.

Over at Kalshi, the money followed the progress of the tournament closely, as the data shows.

Stage 1 opened on June 2 with $3.46M in first day sales. The volume remained strong in the first four days as the 16 lower-seeded teams battled for spots in Stage 2. Stage 2 jumped up when the top-seeded invitationals – G2, Vitality, Spirit, NaVi, FURIA, Falcons – entered the field. In the end, both divisions were building up the momentum for the final stage of the tournament.

Stage 3 is where the real rush hits, as all of the tournament’s top hitters come out swinging. June 12 hit $9.97M, with June 13 following close behind with $9.75M. Two days in a row more than anything the first two episodes had produced together in one day.

After the fact that the third stage was the first stage where every game played was the best of three, a long series was created, many decision points were played and a lot of flexibility for traders to update and get involved in different positions as the story unfolded.

The top trading day was June 19, when the Team Spirit vs. Falcons semifinal at LANXESS Arena helped drive $10.05 million in trading in one day of Anti-Strike action.

Stage 3 alone accounted for 36.9% of all tournament volume, with $40.3 million in in-game revenue over five days. The Playoffs added $27.4 million from just four days. Combined, the last nine days of competition accounted for more than 60% of the tournament’s total market.

As we have discussed in our previous sections on the esports prediction markets, trading volume is often associated with matches where real uncertainty collides with high value matchups. As time goes on in the competition, interest becomes more important. Likewise, there is more volume traded when the series goes to the wire (due to having more maps, and greater volatility in the implied odds of either team winning).

The top four matchups were all from the Playoffs – the Grand Final, both semifinals, and the Spirit vs. G2 quarterfinal. Every game in the top eight exceeded $1.9M in combined volume (ie, people picking either team to win). The Grand Final between the Falcons and FURIA was the most traded single game of the tournament at $3.64M, with 34,330 trades placed throughout the series.

In the finals of Spirit vs. The Falcons produced the highest attendance of any game at 47,787. Although the finals were a toss up, the Spirit vs Falcons matchup was clearly an interesting affair that saw a lot of trading activity, showing markets that were constantly changing prices as the teams traded tangible contributions to the server. Fewer trades, but high volume suggests that people have committed positions in the Grand Final, and the absence of any real drama means that there were not many people coming and trading their previously held positions.

Continuing down the list, the Stage 3 appearance of G2 vs. NaVi ($2.62M), 9z vs. Spirit ($2.56M) and Falcons vs. NaVi ($2.07M) shows that recent rounds of the Swiss format have drawn near-playoff levels of enthusiasm where finishing is directly on the line.

For the purposes of this data release, we do not include a fully successful market, as the market was open longer than the twenty days represented in this sample. With the data below, we’ve compiled the matches each team has engaged with and aggregated them to show which teams have received the most interest from traders.

The Falcons led all teams with $15.74M in game market value across their seven games, from the highest market value of any other program from Phase 2 to FURIA’s Grand Final sweep.

The Spirit sits in second place at $11.43M, a number heavily weighted towards the back half of the competition. Their Stage 3 run was flawless, and their quarterfinal against G2, which went to overtime 25-22 over Mirage, was the fourth highest-grossing game of the entire event with $2.44M.

G2 Esports ($8.59M) and FURIA ($8.41M) are third and fourth respectively, despite FURIA making a run to the finals. The Grand Final alone contributed $3.64M to its total; the two semifinals added more volume, and their Stage 3 games against 9z brought even more. At this rate, FURIA attracted the second most interest (behind the Falcons) for the Playoffs division. This is almost common sense, given that they played more games (due to reaching the Grand Finals) but also suggest that the market was not interested in them in the earlier stages.

9z for $8.07M across six matches showing the underdog’s power in data and attention from traders. They entered Stage 1 and took part in some of the best-selling games of the tournament. 9z’s Stage 3 clash with Spirit ($2.56M) and Vitality ($1.02M), and its quarterfinal with FURIA ($1.94M), all ranked in the top 15 markets overall.

Natus Vincere’s $5.10M despite not reaching the Playoffs shows just how much attention their exit from Stage 3 attracted. The organization’s three games against Spirit, Falcons and G2 were among the best-selling games at IEM Cologne.

Editor’s note: The figures in this article show the volume of contracts traded in Kalshi, a US-controlled speculative market. One contract represents $1 of notional value, but this cannot be directly compared to handling the terms of a traditional sportsbook. Contracts can be bought and sold multiple times before settlement, meaning the total value may exceed the amount of money ultimately at risk. All data covers the period June 2–21, 2026 and is limited to the trading markets corresponding to IEM Cologne 2026.