How will AI and technology dominance evolve around the world between now and 2030?
Forrester’s research measures the ability of several countries to develop, use and protect important technologies without the influence of foreign governments.
The Forrester published the findings of the new report ‘Global Sovereignty Forecast, 2025 to 2030’, which looks at how AI and technological sovereignty are likely to evolve across the world’s 14 largest economies between now and 2030.
The study measured countries’ ability to develop, use and protect critical technologies without the influence of foreign governments.
The findings are that despite huge investments in independent AI, chip production, cloud infrastructure and national technological capabilities, it is estimated that the global dominance of technology will develop slowly in the next few years, with China and the US maintaining a leading position.
The average technological superiority across the 14 countries surveyed – which were Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK and the US – predicts a slight increase from 39pc in 2025 to 40pc in 2030.
Each country was analyzed across nine categories of technology sovereignty: government investment in AI; the kingship of the cloud; availability of technical staff; AI model development; data center capacity in relation to technology spending; data center independence; semiconductor manufacturing; software development; and unusual land processing.
With China and the US recording the highest tech sovereignty scores at 82pc and 79pc respectively, the report suggests that technology sovereignty will remain concentrated among a small number of national and economic powers. If other regions are serious about closing capacity gaps and reducing technological dependence, they will need to commit to strategic partnerships and alliances.
Key highlights
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the recent global focus, in all areas of technology, semiconductor production has experienced the strongest anticipated development. The US and South Korea’s share of chip production will increase from 45pc in 2025 to 79pc in 2030. Meanwhile, Japan is expected to jump from 36pc to 53pc, China from 40pc to 51pc and India from 0pc to 13pc.
However, the report also noted that despite the development, semiconductors and software will remain among the most important challenges for the monarchy due to chip supply chains and a handful of dominant software suppliers.
Monarchy is also divided by which country it is in North America. While the US predicts that it will remain the world leader, Canada it is expected to improve modestly, from 33pc to 34pc. Mexico will continue to remain the lowest among the 14 countries surveyed at 20pc, highlighting the uneven distribution of technological capabilities in the region.
It was also noted that major European economies are likely to remain it is overly dependent to services from external technology providers. Sovereignty scores in Germany and Spain will rise by just two percentage points from 34pc in 2025 to 36pc in 2030, France will rise from 33pc to 35pc, the UK from 30pc to 32pc and Italy from 27pc to 29pc.
“Despite these improvements, Europe’s low scores reflect a heavy reliance on chips, cloud, software and data center capacity,” the report said.
Commenting on the report, Dario Maisto, principal analyst at Forrester said: “Continuing geopolitical volatility, AI competition and risks to the semiconductor supply chain have placed technological dominance firmly in the virtual realm.
“Today, technological sovereignty is concentrated in the hands of a few world leaders, making certain countries benefit from unequal competition. To compete in the AI era, countries must understand their strategic interdependence and build lasting relationships that protect their data, infrastructure and long-term independence.”
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