Bitcoin is retreating from the upper boundary of its rising channel on Powell’s final FOMC day, with the daily bearish MACD cross now confirmed and the price retreating towards the key SMA support. This article explains what the daily chart means, where price may be headed next, and why the Fed’s transition to incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh adds a new layer of uncertainty.
Summary
- Bitcoin is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the session, as the daily MACD bearish crossover confirms that momentum is changing.
- The price has retreated from the upper boundary of the ascending channel and is now pressing the SMA 20 at $75,685 as an immediate support.
- If the SMA 20 fails, the next floor remains at the SMA 50 near $72,082; a confirmed close above $80,000 invalidates the bearish setup.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the day, after touching a high of $77,904 before traders reasserted control heading into the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The pullback comes as Jerome Powell delivers his final FOMC press conference before his term expires on May 15, and as the daily MACD histogram turns negative for the first time in weeks, indicating that the momentum driving April’s 21% recovery is beginning to wane.
MACD bearish daily crossover at the descending channel resistance
The daily chart shows Bitcoin hovering in two overlapping structures. The ascending channel from the February low near $59,000, defined by two parallel blue lines, remains intact and has set the stage for a recovery in April. However, the broad downward trend formed by the two red lines from the February highs near $85,000 is holding a major recovery, with the 200 SMA at $84,423 sitting within that upper boundary as major resistance above.
Price tested the top of an ascending channel near $78,000 on April 28, then pulled back sharply, producing a current session high of $77,904 before sliding to $75,834 at the time of writing. An important technical development on today’s daily chart is the MACD. The MACD line reads at 1,650.21, the signal line at 1,815.33, and the histogram at -165.13, confirming a bearish crossover on a daily basis. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe told X that Bitcoin pulling back before and during FOMC events is normal, but warned that a close below $73,000 would indicate a deeper correction than a normal reset.
Key levels: support, resistance, and price targets
The current support is the SMA 20 at $75,685, which is currently a pressing price. The daily close below removes the first dynamic buffer and brings the SMA 50 at $72,082 and the SMA 100 at $72,659 into focus, both coming together in a tight cluster near the $72,000 to $73,000 area that analysts see as the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed close below $72,000 would break the ascending channel structure and open up a retest of the $65,000 to $68,000 range, where heavy on-chain accumulation has occurred throughout the Iran-driven correction in Q1 2026.
On the other hand, $80,000 remains the main resistance and bull-case target that can make the current bearish MACD reading. Above it, the SMA 200 at $84,423 and the upper border of the descending red channel represent a major level bulls should be clear to confirm the reversal of the structural trend. A confirmed daily close above $80,000 in volume will return the close bias back to neutral.
ETF flows and derivatives context
According to data tracked by crypto.news, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in total outflows on April 28, breaking an eight-day inflow streak that had reached $2.43 billion. Bitcoin fell after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings within 48 hours of the decision, per data published by Phemex, with the pattern driven by traders unwinding long positions ahead of the event rather than the rate decision itself. The current setup, where BTC entered the FOMC in April’s 21% rally with the Fear and Greed Index near 40, closely mirrors the previous setup that produced a sharp post-meeting decline.
Powell’s exit and Warsh’s uncertainty
This convention carries an additional layer of uncertainty beyond the rating decision. Powell’s term ends on May 15, and incoming Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to preside over the June 16-17 FOMC meeting as his first. As crypto.news reported, institutional flows proved sensitive to changes in the Fed’s communication tone during 2026, with oil prices close to $105 per barrel adding more pressure to rate-cutting expectations. Warsh’s hawkish reputation relative to Powell could shift the June dot plot in a direction that strengthens the liquidity outlook for risk assets, making the post-FOMC 48-hour window on April 30 and May 1 a critical test of whether this pullback stabilizes or moves beyond $72,000.
If Bitcoin holds the SMA 20 at $75,685 and retraces $77,500 on the daily close, the ascending channel remains intact and a bearish MACD crossover may be a temporary signal. A close below $72,082 confirms that a deep correction is underway.
